Watch:

PBS documentary on Enigma: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9o4MZ8JbaA (much watch at least the first 30 minutes before class!)

Readings:

1. *Little Brother (you should have read this already)
   

2. *Nolan and MacEachin, with Kristine Tockman, Discourse, Dissent, and Strategic Surprise: Formulating U.S. Security Policy in an Age of Uncertainty, https://isd.georgetown.edu/sites/isd/files/Discourse_Dissent.pdf, Case 1 on Iran
   

3. *MacEachin, CIA Assessments of the Soviet Union: The Record Versus the Charges, https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/97unclass/soviet.html
   

4. *Marcus, Kim Jong-il death: Did US intelligence fail?, in BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16287506
   

5. *National Intelligence Estimate: Iraq’s Continuing Programs of Weapons of Mass Destruction, http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB129/nie.pdf (most of it is redacted, so it is a quick read)
   

6. *Collin Powell as reported by CNN, Transcript of Powell's U.N. presentation, http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/02/05/sprj.irq.powell.transcript.03/index.html
   

7. *Trenin, Why Russia Won't Interfere, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/24/opinion/why-russia-wont-interfere.html?_r=1
   

Questions:

1. 1)Describe three tools used in Little Brother to use DHS’ information gathering capabilities in order to confuse DHS. Explain why or why not such approaches would work today.
   

2. 2)Was the failure of the US Government to foresee the Iranian revolution an error of information collection, information analysis, policy decisions, or something else? What were and are the impacts of getting this wrong?
   

3. 3)Was the failure of the US Government to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union an error of information collection, information analysis, policy decisions, a lack of imagination, or something else? What were and are the impacts of getting this wrong?
   

4. 4)Was the failure to find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq an error of information collection, information analysis, policy decisions, excellent misinformation on the part of Iraq, or something else? What were and are the impacts of getting this wrong?
   

5. 5)[sense a pattern here] What about Ukraine?